This slightly prophetic and majorly neurotic blog won’t die. I thought that it had died last year this time. The NCAA seemed to be making progress towards intelligent reform, and the Big East seemed to be surviving by a whisker, thus keeping a lot of semi-major programs alive.
Then, the NCAA threw quizzically harsh sanction at Penn State and botched the Miami investigation. Meanwhile, their legislation reforms stalled (the cost-of-living stipend) or missed the mark completely (the unlimited communication with recruits proposal).
So, the past half year or so, what has been the big discussion? Will the major five conferences break off from the NCAA? And a blog called “Goodbye NCAA” seems to be relevant again.
Of course, so much has changed in two years that some of this blog (which I’m not going to take the time to re-write) is way out-dated. But many elements still apply. I will update the Power 5 conferences below. You’ll be interested to see how the Big Ten grabbing Rutgers and Maryland triggered the ACC to take Louisville, effectively removing two of the final remaining assets of the old Big East. That conference is finally dead, and the American Athletic Conference has taken its place.
Those changes—in addition to the College Football Playoff, which was introduced this past year—allowed the major five conferences (one less than the “Super 6” that I predicted years ago) to squeeze out 13 teams from the power structure that I had foreseen. (I don’t consider independents like BYU, Air Force, and Army to have “won” in the Power 5 power sweep—only Notre Dame truly survived. Even Notre Dame needed to switch conference alliances [from the dead Big East to the resurgent ACC] to maintain vitality in the new Power 5 world.)
But one thing that seems to be a reality going forward is that the Grant of Rights signed by three of the five major leagues should keep the landscape stable until around 2020. At that point, schools will begin looking ahead at the next iteration of the College Football Playoff in 2025 (likely a jump to an 8-team format rather than just 4) and will test the landscape once again.
The questions is: will they test the landscape within the NCAA or will the Power 5 create their own world, one where the 65 teams below can call their own shots?
|Nebraska||Ole Miss||N.C. State|
|Penn State||Arkansas||Virginia Tech|
|Michigan||South Carolina||Boston College|
|Wisconsin||Texas A&M||Wake Forest|
|Colorado||Kansas State||Notre Dame|
|Arizona State||West Virginia|
*Added since 2012’s update to this blog.