A year later (June 2012 update)

The college landscape is changing faster than anyone could have predicted. In just 12 months, many of the reforms I had suggested are in the legislative process. The “Super 6” might not be ready to break off from the NCAA, but we’re definitely seeing more separation from top to bottom among the “FBS” schools.

My predictions for how certain schools would rise into the “Super 6” conferences were definitely off (mainly because the Big 12 had more power than I thought), but the selection of schools was amazingly accurate. I called for Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, and San Diego State to move up, and thanks to the Big East, they did. I didn’t predict the Big 12 reaching outside their geographic footprint (WVU) and TCU leaving the Big East so quickly, but those defections (plus the defections of Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC) made spots in the Big East available.

I no longer foresee a clean and even 6×12 structure for the big time college football teams. I think that for the time being we’ll see the SEC at 16, with everyone else at 12. Something like this, when the summer’s musical chairs game ends.

Big Ten Big 12 ACC SEC
Nebraska *Florida State *Rutgers *N.C. State
Penn State *Clemson *UConn *Virginia Tech
Michigan State TCU Syracuse Tennessee
Ohio State West Virginia Pittsburgh Kentucky
Michigan Texas Boston College South Carolina
Purdue Baylor Maryland Georgia
Indiana Texas Tech Virginia Florida
Illinois Oklahoma State North Carolina Vanderbilt
Northwestern Oklahoma Duke Missouri
Wisconsin Kansas Wake Forest Texas A&M
Iowa Kansas State Georgia Tech Alabama
Minnesota Iowa State Miami LSU
Pac-12 Big East   Ole Miss
Colorado Cincinnati   Arkansas
Utah Louisville   Mississippi State
Arizona South Florida    
Arizona State Central Florida   Independents
Stanford Temple   Notre Dame
California Navy   BYU
USC Houston   Air Force
UCLA Memphis   Army
Oregon SMU    
Oregon State Navy    
Washington Boise State    
Washington State San Diego State    

The starred teams are obviously ones that I’m predicting will move in the next few months. To speculate beyond this seems a bit outlandish even for me.

Will the Big Ten want to supersize to 16? Maybe, but they’d surely need ACC schools. The ACC seems sufficiently strong, with its six core members still intact plus solid ex-Big Easters.

Will Notre Dame finally succumb to conference affiliation? Probably not, but if they can’t get enough TV money in a few years, then they’ll be forced to align with a money-rich league.

Can the Big 12 remain stable? Can the Pac-12 expand eastward, even if it wanted to?

All of these are questions we might see answered in the next year. God knows how much has changed these past 12 months.


One Response to A year later (June 2012 update)

  1. Pingback: Welcome to perfection… | Goodbye NCAA

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